Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

UMPIRY

ViennaR32HardTue 27 Oct · 10:00

Daniel Merida AguilarATP #42 · ESP26%

VSClear favourite · Medvedev D.

Daniil Medvedev(3)ATP #5 · RUS74%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Medvedev D.

26%74%

Clear edge for Medvedev D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Merida Aguilar D.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Medvedev D.7.7/10

Dominant favourite

Why

Surface+287 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.

Recent run4-match win streakSupports Medvedev D.

This eventReached the last 16 here last yearSupports Medvedev D.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative

ELO1 975

Hard ELO1 775

Last 106–4

Age22

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $940K

ELO2 146

Hard ELO2 042

Last 108–2

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M

Daniel Merida Aguilar faces Daniil Medvedev in the Vienna round of 32 on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16.

Key context

Freshness: Daniel Merida Aguilar comes in with 17 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Daniil Medvedev's 1 and 127.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Daniil Medvedev has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 96 vs 55).
Surface form: Daniel Merida Aguilar 5 of 9, Daniil Medvedev 8 of 9 on hard recently — Daniil Medvedev the sharper of late.

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months

Merida Aguilar D. and Medvedev D. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Merida Aguilar D. went 8–6 (57%) against them, Medvedev D. 9–3 (75%). Medvedev D. came out better against 2 of 10 comparable opponents, Merida Aguilar D. against 0.

8–657%Merida Aguilar D. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents9–375%Medvedev D. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

18–19Sets19–8

182–181Games144–111

3–4Tiebreaks0–1

5–1Deciding sets1–0

vs Tien L.#18L3-6 2-6Montreal · hardL4-6 0-6 3-6Australian Open · hard
vs Rublev A.#22W6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4US Open · hardW7-5 6-4Hangzhou · hard
vs Etcheverry T.#29W7-5 6-4Umag · clayW6-3 6-4Halle · grass

Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Michelsen A.#37L3-6 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-2 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#38L6-1 3-6 4-6Shanghai Masters · hardL3-6 6-7(5)Montreal · hard
vs Tsitsipas S.#39L4-6 2-6Madrid Masters · clayW6-4 7-5Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Cilic M.#84W3-6 6-1 6-1Cincinnati · hardW6-1 6-2 6-4Wimbledon · grass
vs Trungelliti M.#90W7-6 6-3Madrid Masters · clayW6-4 7-5Cincinnati · hard
vs Damm M.#107L3-6 2-6London · grassL5-7 3-6Winston-Salem · hard
vs Svrcina D.#119W6-7 6-4 7-6Miami Masters · hardW6-2 6-3Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Tabilo A.#31Hard to compareW5-7 6-3 6-3Davis Cup · clayW6-4 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Medvedev D. leads 1–0

Medvedev D.July 2026WimbledonGrass6-3 3-6 5-7 2-6

Evidence

Merida Aguilar D.Medvedev D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–48–2

Season win rate69% (44–20)74% (50–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19752146

Hard-court ELO17752042

Serve vs returnLast 57 vs 66 matches

1st-serve points won67%76%

Return points won41%41%

Aces / match2.88.7

ClutchLast 57 vs 66 matches

Break points saved58%64%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast8°C · Clear

Wind2 km/h

Humidity72%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Merida Aguilar D.Medvedev D.

17Days since last match1

0Matches · 7 days3

0Games · 7 days44

0Matches · 14 days7

0Games · 14 days127

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev — Vienna Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/aguilar-vs-medvedev-vienna-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).