Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien — Montreal Quarter-final

Montreal · ATP · Quarter-final
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#63ATP
1744ELO
1676Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 4th on
Learner Tien
USA12
Learner Tien
#19ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWWLLW
Merida Aguilar D.
3-6 2-6
Tien L.
Merida Aguilar D.
320
Tien L.
662

Learner Tien advanced to the semifinals of the Montreal tournament by defeating Daniel Merida Aguilar in the quarterfinals. Tien won the match in straight sets, 6-3, 6-2.

Around the match

  • “Definitely scouting reports are more detailed on me. I've been around a little longer where people kind of know my game. But I think it's been good for me to have to improve and kind of adapt.”

    Tien L.National Bank Open ↗

  • “You are just sending a message to the other guy that you're willing to play these long rallies, and a lot of the time it really pays off.”

    Tien L.National Bank Open ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Merida Aguilar D.Tien L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.3
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Merida Aguilar D.Tien L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
92
Break points saved·Dominant
64
92
Break points won·Dominant
46
88
Deciding sets·Clear edge
87
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
49
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Merida Aguilar D.28%
Tien L.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tien L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Merida Aguilar D.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Tien L.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Hard Elo 1676
Surface ELO
7.9+229 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1941
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Merida Aguilar D.Tien L.
Freshness·Slight edge
64
69

Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 81 games (7d) · Tien L.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 71%

Draw