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Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16

Ningbo Open - NingboR16HardWed 21 Oct · 19:00Center Court · After 3 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Kostyuk M.
25%75%

Clear edge for Kostyuk M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Alexandrova E.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Kostyuk M.6.9/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+168 Hard Elo edgeSupports Kostyuk M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2057Supports Kostyuk M.
Recent runLost last 2Against the prediction · Alexandrova E.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardSupports Kostyuk M.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 961
Hard ELO1 833
Last 106–4
Age31
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $11.5M2026 $1.8M
ELO2 126
Hard ELO1 904
Last 106–4
Age24
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $11.2M2026 $4.3M

Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Marta Kostyuk in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 16 on hard. Marta Kostyuk is the paper favourite — ranked #10, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage — but Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months
All 10 opponents →

Alexandrova E. and Kostyuk M. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Alexandrova E. went 7–7 (50%) against them, Kostyuk M. 10–6 (63%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 4 better-results split).

7–750%Alexandrova E. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents10–663%Kostyuk M. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
16–17Sets21–18
158–159Games197–170
2–4Tiebreaks2–2
3–3Deciding sets6–1
Show 7 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Alexandrova E. leads 2–1
Full H2H →
21

Hard: level 1–1 · Clay: Alexandrova E. leads 1–0

Evidence

Alexandrova E.Kostyuk M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate47% (22–25)77% (36–11) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19612126 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18331904 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 45 matches
1st-serve points won66%71% (ahead)
Return points won42%47% (ahead)
Aces / match4.7 (ahead)3.9
ClutchLast 44 vs 45 matches
Break points saved57%60% (ahead)

When it starts

Center Court · After 3 matches · Not before 7:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center Court · 19:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast21°C · Partly cloudy
Wind18 km/h
Humidity61%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Alexandrova E.Kostyuk M.
8 — fresherDays since last match7
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days26
3Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
70Games · 14 days26 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/alexandrova-vs-kostyuk-ningbo-open-ningbo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).