Leylah Fernandez vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich

UMPIRY

Ningbo Open - NingboR16HardWed 21 Oct · 10:00

Leylah FernandezWTA #30 · CAN67%

VSClear favourite · Fernandez L.

Aliaksandra SasnovichWTA #122 · BLR33%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Fernandez L.

67%33%

Clear edge for Fernandez L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Fernandez L.7.0/10

Strong advantage

Sasnovich A.6.1/10

Even match

Why

Surface+88 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fernandez L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1805Supports Fernandez L.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Sasnovich A.

Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Fernandez L.

Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Sasnovich A.

ELO1 924

Hard ELO1 832

Last 108–2

Age24

Height168 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $9.0M2026 $1.6M

ELO1 834

Hard ELO1 743

Last 108–2

Age32

Height174 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $379K

Leylah Fernandez faces Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 16 on hard. Leylah Fernandez is the paper favourite — ranked #30, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Aliaksandra Sasnovich rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2, Leylah Fernandez ahead 2–0 on hard.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Leylah Fernandez has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 84 vs 27).
Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Leylah Fernandez grades 51 on serve, Aliaksandra Sasnovich 49 on return.
Last match: Leylah Fernandez dropped the opening set before beating Elise Mertens 2–6 6–3 7–5.

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Fernandez L. and Sasnovich A. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fernandez L. went 9–2 (82%) against them, Sasnovich A. 1–7 (13%). Fernandez L. came out clearly better against 7 of 8 comparable opponents, Sasnovich A. against 0.

9–282%Fernandez L. · better vs 7Record vs common opponents1–713%Sasnovich A. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

18–7Sets4–13

139–103Games70–91

0–2Tiebreaks0–2

3–0Deciding sets0–2

vs Andreeva M.#3W6-2 7-5Singapore · hardL2-6 2-6Singapore · hard
vs Cirstea S.#17W6-4 6-4Hong Kong · hardL3-6 6-7Dubai · hard
vs Eala A.#20W6-1 6-4Stuttgart · clayL6-2 4-6 6-7Abu Dhabi · hard

Show 5 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Alexandrova E.#33W6-4 3-6 6-3Wuhan · hardL1-6 4-6Beijing · hard
vs Gibson T.#42W7-5 6-0Singapore · hardW6-1 6-4Beijing · hard
vs Samsonova L.#43W5-7 7-5 6-3Dubai · hardL4-6 4-6Brisbane · hard
vs Frech M.#47W6-4 3-6 6-4Strasbourg · clayL4-6Berlin · grass
vs Grabher J.#102W6-2 6-3Madrid · clayL6-4 2-6 4-6Rome · clay

Head-to-head

4 meetings · level 2–2

Clay: Sasnovich A. leads 2–0 · Hard: Fernandez L. leads 2–0

Sasnovich A.April 2025Vic 125Clay6-4 2-6 6-2
Fernandez L.October 2024TokyoHard5-7 6-2 5-2
Fernandez L.October 2023NanchangHard6-3 6-4
Sasnovich A.May 2023RomeClay7-6 4-6 6-3

Evidence

Fernandez L.Sasnovich A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate48% (25–27)58% (35–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19241834

Hard-court ELO18321743

Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 57 matches

1st-serve points won66%65%

Return points won42%46%

Aces / match2.72.9

ClutchLast 50 vs 57 matches

Break points saved63%58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast22°C · Overcast

Wind20 km/h

Humidity71%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Fernandez L.Sasnovich A.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days3

72Games · 7 days45

4Matches · 14 days5

100Games · 14 days81

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Leylah Fernandez vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/fernandez-vs-sasnovich-ningbo-open-ningbo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).