Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Leylah FernandezVic 125 Round of 16

Vic 125 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#143WTA
1726ELO
1655Clay ELO
32 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 28 April 2025
clay
#25WTA
1805ELO
1702Clay ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Sasnovich A.
6-4 2-6 6-2
Fernandez L.
Sasnovich A.
6262
Fernandez L.
4621

Aliaksandra Sasnovich defeated Leylah Fernandez 6-4 2-6 6-2 in the Vic 125 round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Leylah Fernandez came in ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 2–1, but Aliaksandra Sasnovich had been the form player, winning 3 of their last 5 on clay. Aliaksandra Sasnovich narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-21TokyoR32hardLeylah Fernandez5-7 6-2 5-2 RET
2023-10-16NanchangQFhardLeylah Fernandez6-3 6-4
2023-05-08RomeR128clayAliaksandra Sasnovich7-6(4) 4-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Sasnovich A.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Fernandez L.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Sasnovich A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Sasnovich A.Fernandez L.
Serve
47
Return
20

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.4
Double faults / match·Even
3.8
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (86 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
61
87
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
95
Break points won·Even
93
95
Deciding sets·Clear edge
72
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
25
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Clay Elo 1655
Surface ELO
6.1+47 Clay Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1726
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1805
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.7
Surface form
4.9
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
8.1
Minutes 14d
8.7
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
99

Sasnovich A.: 18 days rest · Fernandez L.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast