Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva — Beijing Quarter-final

BeijingQuarter-finalHardThu 8 Oct · 19:00Capital Group Diamond · After 1 match
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Andreeva M.
16%84%

Clear edge for Andreeva M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Alexandrova E.6.0/10
Even match
Andreeva M.7.7/10
Dominant favourite
Why
Surface+194 Hard Elo edgeSupports Andreeva M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2074Supports Andreeva M.
This eventReached the R64 here last yearInformative
Recent run3-match win streakBoth players
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
ELO1 982
Hard ELO1 854
Last 106–4
Age31
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $11.3M2026 $1.6M
ELO2 144
Hard ELO1 959
Last 108–2
Age19
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $13.3M2026 $5.7M

Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Mirra Andreeva in the Beijing quarter-final on hard. Mirra Andreeva is the paper favourite — ranked #5, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage — but Ekaterina Alexandrova has won both their previous meetings, though none on hard.

Key context

Common opponents

15 shared · last 12 months

Alexandrova E. and Andreeva M. faced 15 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Alexandrova E. went 11–11 (50%) against them, Andreeva M. 15–5 (75%). Andreeva M. came out better against 7 of 15 comparable opponents, Alexandrova E. against 0.

11–1150%Alexandrova E. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents15–575%Andreeva M. · better vs 7
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
25–23Sets31–16
211–211Games248–194
1–1Tiebreaks2–2
2–4Deciding sets6–1
Show 12 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Alexandrova E. leads 2–0
20

Grass: Alexandrova E. leads 1–0 · Clay: Alexandrova E. leads 1–0

Evidence

Alexandrova E.Andreeva M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–48–2 (ahead)
Season win rate48% (21–23)77% (49–15) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19822144 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18541959 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 26 vs 48 matches
1st-serve points won66%67% (ahead)
Return points won42%47% (ahead)
Aces / match4.4 (ahead)3.1
ClutchLast 26 vs 48 matches
Break points saved51%61% (ahead)

When it starts

Capital Group Diamond · After 1 match · Not before 7:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Capital Group Diamond · 19:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-slow
Forecast22°C · Clear
Wind4 km/h
Humidity54%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Alexandrova E.Andreeva M.
1Days since last match1
3Matches · 7 days3
61Games · 7 days54 — fresher
3 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
61 — fresherGames · 14 days90
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva — Beijing Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/alexandrova-vs-andreeva-beijing-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).