Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia PotapovaUS Open Round of 16

US Open · WTA · Round of 16
#5WTA
2074ELO
1994Hard ELO
$5.6MYTD
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 September 2026 ·
hard
Louis Armstrong Stadium · 2nd on
#25WTA
1904ELO
1804Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLLLLLW
Andreeva M.
5-7 6-4 6-3
Potapova A.
Andreeva M.
5662
Potapova A.
7431

Mirra Andreeva defeated Anastasia Potapova in the Round of 16 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 in Andreeva's favor. Both players recorded 2 aces and 3 service breaks, while Andreeva made 6 double faults to Potapova's 4, and Andreeva converted 60% of break points to Potapova's 75%.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Nastya, she's my good friend. Seeing what a battle we had, and her fall like this, it's not easy. I'm pretty sad with how it all ended.

    Andreeva M.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

52
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-06LinzFhardMirra Andreeva1-6 6-4 6-3
2025-08-27US OpenR64hardMirra Andreeva6-1 6-3
2025-08-25US OpenR64hardMirra Andreeva6-1 6-3
2023-07-09WimbledonR32grassMirra Andreeva6-2 7-5
2023-07-03WimbledonR32grassMirra Andreeva6-2 7-5
2022-10-04MonastirR32hardAnastasia Potapova6-3 6-7(4) 6-3
2022-10-03MonastirR32hardAnastasia Potapova6-3 6-7 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
56%
Return points won·Even
47%
46%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 52). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
94
60
Break points saved·Dominant
84
43
Break points won·Slight edge
100
93
Deciding sets·Even
94
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
94
15

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Andreeva M.81%
Potapova A.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Andreeva M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+190 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1804
7.1Overall Elo 2074
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1904
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
H2H
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.95 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
67
64

Andreeva M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d) · Potapova A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 30%

Draw