Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff — US Open Quarter-final

US Open · WTA · Quarter-final
Mirra Andreeva
RUS5
Mirra Andreeva
#5WTA
2074ELO
1994Hard ELO
$5.6MYTD
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWLWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 9 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 2nd on
Coco Gauff
USA4
Coco Gauff
#4WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWWWW
Andreeva M.
vs
Gauff C.

Mirra Andreeva faces Coco Gauff in the US Open quarter-final on hard. Coco Gauff holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Andreeva M.45%
Gauff C.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
15 common opponents · Andreeva M. 16–6 · Gauff C. 13–7
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Andreeva M.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Gauff C.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1994
Surface ELO
5.5+41 Hard Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 2074
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 2071
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
10.010 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
10.010-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

48 vs 42 matches

Statistics

This season
Andreeva M.Gauff C.
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Even
47%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Andreeva M.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Andreeva M.

Serve advantage — Andreeva M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Andreeva M.Gauff C.
Clutch Rating·Even
94
93
Break points saved·Even
84
81
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
94
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
94
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Andreeva M.Gauff C.
Freshness·Slight edge
67
72

Andreeva M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d) · Gauff C.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on Arthur Ashe Stadium · Starting at 12:40 PM · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1WZheng Q. v Rybakina E.
  2. 2WAndreeva M. v Gauff C.This match
  3. 3MKhachanov K. v Blockx A.
  4. 4MZverev A. v Van De Zandschulp B.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 65%

Head to head

0–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-12RomeQFclayCoco Gauff4-6 6-2 6-4
2025-05-06RomeQFclayCoco Gauff6-4 7-6
2023-08-28US OpenR64hardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR32clayCoco Gauff6-7 6-1 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Draw