Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Hugo Gaston — Braunschweig Semi-final

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Facundo Diaz Acosta
ARG
Facundo Diaz Acosta
#120ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$264kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWWLL
—
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
Hugo Gaston
FRA
Hugo Gaston
#118ATP
1622ELO
1566Clay ELO
$355kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLLW
Diaz Acosta F.
vs
Gaston H.

Facundo Diaz Acosta faces Hugo Gaston in the Braunschweig semi-final on clay. Hugo Gaston is the paper favourite — ranked #118, leading the head-to-head 2–1 — but Facundo Diaz Acosta arrives in form, winning all 5 of their last clay matches to Hugo Gaston's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Diaz Acosta F.73%
Gaston H.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Diaz Acosta F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Diaz Acosta F.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Gaston H.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.3+102 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1566
5.7Overall Elo 1680
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1622
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on clay
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Diaz Acosta F.Stable
Gaston H.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Diaz Acosta F.Gaston H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Even
44%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
55%
Aces / match·Even
2.8
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Diaz Acosta F.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Gaston H.

Gaston H.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Diaz Acosta F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Diaz Acosta F.Gaston H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
60
73
Break points saved·Even
89
91
Break points won·Clear edge
33
57
Deciding sets·Slight edge
70
78
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Diaz Acosta F.Gaston H.
Freshness·Clear edge
51
69

Diaz Acosta F.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 128 games (7d) · Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 34%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-26US OpenR128hardFacundo Diaz Acosta6-1 6-4 6-2
2024-07-22KitzbuhelSFclayHugo Gaston6-1 2-0 RET
2024-07-15HamburgR32clayHugo Gaston7-6(4) 1-6 6-4
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Burruchaga R.[1]
Schoenhaus M.
3-63-6
Djere L.
Bueno G.
6-16-2
Rincon D.
Gentzsch T.
6-46-4
Gombos N.
Ofner S.[5]
3-63-6
Choinski J.[4]
Kuzmanov D.
6-46-4
Rehberg M.
Kouame M.
6-46-4
D. Dedura
Tabur C.
6-13-66-4
Seyboth Wild T.
Svrcina D.[7]
4-63-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Gaubas V.
3-67-652-6
Molleker R.
Diaz Acosta F.
3-66-34-6
Mcdonald N.
Smith K.
6-16-3
Krumich M.
Pieri S.
7-54-66-3
Gaston H.[8]
Chepelev A.
6-46-1
Skatov T.
Petkovic M.
5-73-6
Moeller M.
Sanchez Martinez B.
0-66-37-66
Prado Angelo J.
Vallejo A.[2]
2-64-6
Schoenhaus M.
Djere L.
5-74-6
Rincon D.
Ofner S.[5]
3-67-56-3
Choinski J.[4]
Rehberg M.
2-67-56-4
D. Dedura
Svrcina D.[7]
6-37-63
Gaubas V.
Diaz Acosta F.
4-62-6
Mcdonald N.
Krumich M.
6-46-4
Gaston H.[8]
Petkovic M.
6-746-46-1
Moeller M.
Vallejo A.[2]
6-35-0
Djere L.
Rincon D.
7-634-63-6
Choinski J.[4]
D. Dedura
6-46-1
Diaz Acosta F.
Mcdonald N.
6-36-2
Gaston H.[8]
Moeller M.
6-26-4
Rincon D.
Choinski J.
Diaz Acosta F.
Gaston H.
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