Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Vilius GaubasBraunschweig Round of 32

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#111ATP
1685ELO
1652Clay ELO
$326kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
34 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWLLLWW
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
clay
#129ATP
1569ELO
1518Clay ELO
$275kYTD
$759kCAREER
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLLLLW
Basilashvili N.
vs
Gaubas V.

Nikoloz Basilashvili faces Vilius Gaubas in the Braunschweig round of 32 on clay. Nikoloz Basilashvili holds the paper edge — ranked #111, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC
Basilashvili N.64%
Gaubas V.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Basilashvili N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.7+134 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Clay Elo 1518
6.4Overall Elo 1685
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1569
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
4.45 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.43 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
52%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.5
3.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.7
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Basilashvili N.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Gaubas V.

Gaubas V.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Basilashvili N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
73
57
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
87
Break points won·Slight edge
42
52
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
83
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
78

Basilashvili N.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 10 games (7d) · Gaubas V.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.