Daniel Rincon vs Sebastian Ofner — Braunschweig Round of 16
Rincon D.
Daniel Rincon faces Sebastian Ofner in the Braunschweig round of 16 on clay. Sebastian Ofner is the paper favourite — ranked #110, a roughly 210-point clay Elo advantage — but Daniel Rincon arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Sebastian Ofner's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Ofner S. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Daniel Rincon comes in with 3 days of rest and 96 games in 14d, vs Sebastian Ofner's 6 and 77.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Sebastian Ofner has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 70 vs 41).
- Last match: Sebastian Ofner dropped just 6 games past Norbert Gombos.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.