Niels Mcdonald vs Martin KrumichBraunschweig Round of 16

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#569ATP
1351ELO
1360Clay ELO
18 yrs
Last 10
WLLWWLLLLL
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
clay
#282ATP
1459ELO
1423Clay ELO
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWWL
Mcdonald N.
vs
Krumich M.

Niels Mcdonald faces Martin Krumich in the Braunschweig round of 16 on clay. Martin Krumich holds the paper edge — ranked #282, a roughly 60-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Mcdonald N.23%
Krumich M.77%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Krumich M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Clay Elo 1360
Surface ELO
5.8+64 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1351
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1459
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.73 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Mcdonald N.Risingearly

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

5 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
29%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
4.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald N.serving61% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Krumich M.

Krumich M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Mcdonald N.

Serve advantage — Krumich M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
95

Mcdonald N.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Krumich M.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
17°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.