Hugo Gaston vs Marvin Moeller — Braunschweig Quarter-final
FRA
Gaston H.
Hugo Gaston faces Marvin Moeller in the Braunschweig quarter-final on clay. Hugo Gaston is the paper favourite — ranked #118, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage — but Marvin Moeller arrives in form, winning all 5 of their last clay matches to Hugo Gaston's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Gaston H. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Hugo Gaston 79 games in 14 days, Marvin Moeller 141.
- Under pressure: Hugo Gaston has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 73 vs Marvin Moeller's 48).
- Last match: Hugo Gaston dropped the opening set before beating Mika Petkovic 6–7 6–4 6–1.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGaston H.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Moeller M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 106 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
3rd on TENZER CENTER COURT · not before Followed By · 2 matches still to finish ahead
- 1Choinski J. v D. Dedura
- 2Diaz Acosta F. v Mcdonald N.
- 3Gaston H. v Moeller M.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.