Daniel Rincon vs Jan Choinski — Braunschweig Semi-final
GBR
Rincon D.
Daniel Rincon faces Jan Choinski in the Braunschweig semi-final on clay. Jan Choinski holds the paper edge — ranked #100, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Choinski J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Daniel Rincon comes in with 2 days of rest and 146 games in 14d, vs Jan Choinski's 2 and 117.
- Last match: Daniel Rincon dropped the opening set before beating Laslo Djere 6–7 6–4 6–3.
- Last match: Jan Choinski dropped just 5 games past D. Dedura.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRincon D.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 114 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.