Lukas Neumayer vs Guido Ivan Justo — Trieste Round of 16
Neumayer L.
Lukas Neumayer faces Guido Ivan Justo in the Trieste round of 16 on clay. Lukas Neumayer holds the paper edge — ranked #167, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 11:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Neumayer L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Lukas Neumayer 0 games in 14 days, Guido Ivan Justo 80.
- Under pressure: Lukas Neumayer has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 39 vs Guido Ivan Justo's 14).
- Last match: Guido Ivan Justo handed Georgii Kravchenko a second-set bagel in a 6–4 6–0 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNeumayer L.: 15 days rest · Justo G.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.