Henri Squire vs Alvaro Guillen MezaTrieste Round of 32

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#235ATP
1509ELO
1489Clay ELO
25 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLWWWLW
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
#276ATP
1451ELO
1425Clay ELO
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWLLLL
Squire H.
vs
Guillen Meza A.

Henri Squire faces Alvaro Guillen Meza in the Trieste round of 32 on clay. Henri Squire holds the paper edge — ranked #235, a roughly 60-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:20 UTC
Squire H.63%
Guillen Meza A.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Squire H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Henri Squire 5 of 9, Alvaro Guillen Meza 2 of 9 on clay recently — Henri Squire the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8+63 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Clay Elo 1425
5.7Overall Elo 1509
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1451
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.46 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.22 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
40%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
51%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.9
1.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.6
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Squire H.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Guillen Meza A.

Guillen Meza A.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Squire H.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
39
21
Break points saved·Dominant
87
43
Break points won·Dominant
12
41
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
36
Tiebreaks·Even
25
26

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
81
86

Squire H.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Guillen Meza A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.