Maxim Mrva vs Gonzalo Villanueva — Trieste Round of 32
Mrva M.
Maxim Mrva faces Gonzalo Villanueva in the Trieste round of 32 on clay. Maxim Mrva is the paper favourite — ranked #295, a roughly 100-point clay Elo advantage — but Gonzalo Villanueva arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Maxim Mrva's 6.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Mrva M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Maxim Mrva comes in with 14 days of rest and 34 games in 14d, vs Gonzalo Villanueva's 1 and 148.
- Surface form: Maxim Mrva 6 of 10, Gonzalo Villanueva 8 of 10 on clay recently — Gonzalo Villanueva the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadMrva M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Villanueva G.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.