Maxim Mrva vs Federico Bondioli — Trieste Round of 16
Mrva M.
Maxim Mrva faces Federico Bondioli in the Trieste round of 16 on clay. Maxim Mrva holds the paper edge — ranked #295, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Mrva M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Maxim Mrva 0 games in 14 days, Federico Bondioli 26.
- Last match: Maxim Mrva dropped the opening set before beating Gonzalo Villanueva 5–7 7–6 6–4.
- Last match: Federico Bondioli dropped the opening set before beating Joel Schwaerzler 3–6 6–3 7–5.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadMrva M.: 15 days rest · Bondioli F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.