Henry Bernet vs Federico Bondioli — Trieste Quarter-final
Bernet H.
Henry Bernet faces Federico Bondioli in the Trieste quarter-final on clay. Federico Bondioli is the paper favourite — ranked #363, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage — but Henry Bernet rides a 4-match win streak. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Bondioli F. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Henry Bernet's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Federico Bondioli's has cooled.
- Last match: Federico Bondioli handed Maxim Mrva a second-set bagel in a 7–5 6–0 win.
- Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadBernet H.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Bondioli F.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.