Federico Bondioli vs Joel Schwaerzler — Trieste Round of 32
Bondioli F.
Federico Bondioli faces Joel Schwaerzler in the Trieste round of 32 on clay. Joel Schwaerzler holds the paper edge — ranked #177, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Schwaerzler J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Federico Bondioli 26 games in 14 days, Joel Schwaerzler 23.
- Surface form: Federico Bondioli 4 of 9, Joel Schwaerzler 3 of 9 on clay recently — Federico Bondioli the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadBondioli F.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Schwaerzler J.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.