Sumit Nagal vs Matej Dodig — Trieste Round of 32

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Sumit Nagal
IND
Sumit Nagal
#219ATP
1485ELO
1476Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLLLLW
—
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
CRO
Matej Dodig
#208ATP
1456ELO
1429Clay ELO
20 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLWWLWL
Nagal S.
vs
Dodig M.

Sumit Nagal faces Matej Dodig in the Trieste round of 32 on clay. Matej Dodig is the paper favourite — ranked #208 — but Sumit Nagal arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Matej Dodig's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:20 UTC
Nagal S.52%
Dodig M.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nagal S.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Dodig M.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.6+47 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Clay Elo 1429
5.4Overall Elo 1485
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1456
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
6.96 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.23 of last 10 on clay
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Nagal S.Rising
Dodig M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
Nagal S.Dodig M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Even
61%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.7
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nagal S.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Dodig M.

Dodig M.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Nagal S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Nagal S.Dodig M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
33
27
Break points saved·Slight edge
69
76
Break points won·Dominant
35
3
Deciding sets·Clear edge
16
34
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
58

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Nagal S.Dodig M.
Freshness·Clear edge
79
94

Nagal S.: 8 days rest · 5 matches (14d) · Dodig M.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying