Andrea Pellegrino vs Max Alcala Gurri — Trieste Round of 32
Pellegrino A.
Andrea Pellegrino faces Max Alcala Gurri in the Trieste round of 32 on clay. Andrea Pellegrino holds the paper edge — ranked #133, a roughly 60-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Andrea Pellegrino 46 games in 14 days, Max Alcala Gurri 89.
- Form trend: Andrea Pellegrino's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Max Alcala Gurri's has cooled.
- Surface form: Both 6 of 8 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadPellegrino A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Alcala Gurri M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.