Pietro Fellin vs Francesco Passaro — Trieste Round of 32
Fellin P.Pietro Fellin faces Francesco Passaro in the Trieste round of 32 on clay. Francesco Passaro is the paper favourite — ranked #185, a roughly 330-point clay Elo advantage — but Pietro Fellin arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Francesco Passaro's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Passaro F. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Pietro Fellin 22 games in 14 days, Francesco Passaro 95.
- Surface form: Pietro Fellin 7 of 10, Francesco Passaro 4 of 10 on clay recently — Pietro Fellin the sharper of late.
- Win streak: Pietro Fellin arrives on a 3-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadFellin P.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Passaro F.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.