Henri Squire vs Francesco Passaro — Trieste Round of 16
Squire H.
Henri Squire faces Francesco Passaro in the Trieste round of 16 on clay. Francesco Passaro is the paper favourite — ranked #185, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage — but Henri Squire arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 9 on clay to Francesco Passaro's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Passaro F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Henri Squire 75 games in 14 days, Francesco Passaro 95.
- Last match: Francesco Passaro advanced when Pietro Fellin retired.
- Last match: Henri Squire won all two sets in tiebreaks against Alvaro Guillen Meza.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSquire H.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Passaro F.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.