Lukas Neumayer vs Henri Squire — Trieste Quarter-final
Neumayer L.
Lukas Neumayer faces Henri Squire in the Trieste quarter-final on clay. Lukas Neumayer holds the paper edge — ranked #167, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Neumayer L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Lukas Neumayer 19 games in 14 days, Henri Squire 75.
- Last match: Henri Squire dropped the opening set before beating Francesco Passaro 5–7 6–4 7–5.
- Surface form: Lukas Neumayer 7 of 9, Henri Squire 6 of 9 on clay recently — Lukas Neumayer the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNeumayer L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Squire H.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.