Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley — Ilkley Round of 16

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

USA

Keegan Smith

#252ATP

1421ELO

1411Grass ELO

27 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLLLWWWW

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

GBR

Jacob Fearnley

#145ATP

1625ELO

1582Grass ELO

$214kYTD

$1.7MCAREER

24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLLWWLLL

Keegan Smith faces Jacob Fearnley in the Ilkley round of 16 on grass. Jacob Fearnley is the paper favourite — ranked #145, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Keegan Smith rides a 3-match win streak.

Key context

Last match: Jacob Fearnley dropped the opening set before beating Luca Nardi 4–6 6–0 6–3.
Fatigue load: Keegan Smith carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Keegan Smith arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Smith K.25%

Fearnley J.75%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Smith K.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Fearnley J.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

2.9Grass Elo 1410

Surface ELO

7.1+171 Grass Elo edge

2.4Overall Elo 1421

ELO gap

7.6Overall Elo 1625

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

4.75 of last 10 on grass

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Country comfort

7.4Home country · 4/7 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

12°CDrizzle

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Smith K.Fearnley J.

76%1st serve in+13%63%

71%1st serve points won+4%67%

53%2nd serve points won+8%45%

67%Service points won+8%59%

36%Return points won+2%38%

68%Break points saved+15%53%

6.7Aces / match+1.55.2

2Double faults / match+3.65.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final