August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Ilkley Round of 32
Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#148ATP
1549ELO
1615Grass ELO
$66kYTD
$580kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 8 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 1 · 3rd on
#122ATP
1674ELO
1537Grass ELO
$248kYTD
$701kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLWL
August Holmgren reeled off seven straight games on the way to a 6-0 7-6 win over Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Ilkley round of 32.
Key context
- Set 1, game 2: August Holmgren broke serve.
- Pressure points: August Holmgren converted 3 of 7 break points; Nicolai Budkov Kjaer converted 0 of 0 break points.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTCHolmgren A.38%
Budkov Kjaer N.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Budkov Kjaer N. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.0+78 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO4.0Grass Elo 1536
3.4Overall Elo 1549
ELO gap6.6Overall Elo 1674
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
7.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form5.05 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Holmgren A.
6772
Budkov Kjaer N.
0640
Conditions
Weather
15°CMainly clear
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 48%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form64%1st serve in+1%63%
74%1st serve points won+4%70%
51%2nd serve points won51%
66%Service points won+3%63%
37%Return points won+2%39%
65%Break points saved+4%61%
8.6Aces / match+5.13.5
3.3Double faults / match+0.92.4
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Holmgren A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-07-64
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