Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

ITA

Francesco Maestrelli

#126ATP

1561ELO

1426Grass ELO

$254kYTD

$836kCAREER

23 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWLLLLLLL

1 — 2

Sets

Tuesday, 9 June 2026 · 12:55

grass

COURT 3 · 1st on

FRA

Arthur Gea

#137ATP

1622ELO

1511Grass ELO

$243kYTD

$484kCAREER

21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWWWWLLLL

Arthur Gea broke serve in the third set to take control and defeat Francesco Maestrelli 7-6 3-6 6-1 in the Ilkley round of 32.

Key context

Set 2, game 4: Arthur Gea saved four break points to hold serve.
Pressure points: Francesco Maestrelli converted 1 of 7 break points; Arthur Gea converted 2 of 2 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:21 UTC

Maestrelli F.33%

Gea A.67%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gea A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Maestrelli F.

4.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Gea A.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

3.9Grass Elo 1426

Surface ELO

6.1+85 Grass Elo edge

4.2Overall Elo 1561

ELO gap

5.8Overall Elo 1622

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

0.00 of last 7 on grass

Surface form

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Maestrelli F.

6⁴611

Gea A.

7⁷362