Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal — Ilkley Round of 16

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

FRA

Arthur Gea

#137ATP

1622ELO

1511Grass ELO

$243kYTD

$484kCAREER

21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWWWWLLL

—

Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

EST

Mark Lajal

#154ATP

1598ELO

1587Grass ELO

$55kYTD

$612kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWWLLWL

Arthur Gea faces Mark Lajal in the Ilkley round of 16 on grass. Arthur Gea holds the paper edge — ranked #137.

Key context

Last match: Mark Lajal dropped the opening set before beating Michael Zheng 4–6 6–4 7–6.
Fatigue load: Mark Lajal carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC

Gea A.45%

Lajal M.55%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Gea A.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Lajal M.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.1Grass Elo 1511

Surface ELO

5.9+75 Grass Elo edge

5.3Overall Elo 1622

ELO gap

4.7Overall Elo 1598

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

6.16 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.