Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley — Ilkley Round of 32

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
ITA
Luca Nardi
#159ATP
1608ELO
1440Grass ELO
$198kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLLLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 10 June 2026 ·
grass
CENTRE COURT · 1st on
GBR
Jacob Fearnley
#145ATP
1625ELO
1582Grass ELO
$214kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWWLLLW

Around the match

  • “Will be hoping to hit the ground running fast on the grass this year.”

    Fearnley J.lta.org.uk ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:20 UTC
Nardi L.34%
Fearnley J.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fearnley J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nardi L.
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Fearnley J.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Grass Elo 1440
Surface ELO
6.8+142 Grass Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1625
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.32 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
3.54 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
7.0Home country · 3/6 here
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

When it starts

1st on CENTRE COURT · not before Starting at 10:30 AM · up next on court

  1. 1Nardi L. v Fearnley J.This match
  2. 2Schoolkate T. v Jubb P.
  3. 3Rocha H. v Broom C.

Conditions

Weather forecast
10°CDrizzle
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 93%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Nardi L.Fearnley J.
62%1st serve in+1%63%
69%1st serve points won+2%67%
52%2nd serve points won+7%45%
62%Service points won+3%59%
38%Return points won38%
63%Break points saved+10%53%
5.1Aces / match+0.15.2
2.6Double faults / match+35.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw