Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel — Ilkley Round of 32

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

FRA

Kyrian Jacquet

#146ATP

1664ELO

1555Grass ELO

$160kYTD

$888kCAREER

25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWWLLWWWL

1 — 2

Sets

Monday, 8 June 2026 · 18:25

grass

CENTRE COURT · 4th on

GBR

Toby Samuel

#150ATP

1680ELO

1544Grass ELO

$44kYTD

$158kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWWLLLWWW

Toby Samuel survived three match points to beat Kyrian Jacquet in the Ilkley round of 32.

Key context

Set 3, game 9: Toby Samuel broke serve.
Comeback: Toby Samuel recovered from a set deficit to win.
Pressure points: Kyrian Jacquet converted 3 of 6 break points; Toby Samuel converted 2 of 6 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC

Jacquet K.46%

Samuel T.54%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jacquet K.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Samuel T.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

5.1+11 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.9Grass Elo 1544

4.8Overall Elo 1664

ELO gap

5.2Overall Elo 1680

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.44 of last 9 on grass

Surface form

5.65 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Country comfort

7.0Home country · 1/2 here

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Jacquet K.

66¹⁰41

Samuel T.

17¹²62