Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch — Ilkley Round of 16

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

POR

Henrique Rocha

#121ATP

1621ELO

1517Grass ELO

$119kYTD

$801kCAREER

22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWLWLL

—

Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 14:00

grass

USA

Darwin Blanch

#219ATP

1569ELO

1484Grass ELO

18 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LWWLLLWWWL

Henrique Rocha faces Darwin Blanch in the Ilkley round of 16 on grass. Henrique Rocha holds the paper edge — ranked #121, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Henrique Rocha dropped just 4 games past Charles Broom.
Win streak: Henrique Rocha arrives on a 6-match winning run.
Fatigue load: Henrique Rocha carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC

Rocha H.67%

Blanch D.33%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rocha H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rocha H.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Blanch D.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

5.4+32 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.6Grass Elo 1484

5.7Overall Elo 1621

ELO gap

4.3Overall Elo 1569

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.55 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

9.06-match win streak

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

12°CDrizzle

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Rocha H.Blanch D.

64%1st serve in+6%58%

69%1st serve points won+4%73%

50%2nd serve points won+2%48%

62%Service points won62%

42%Return points won+4%38%

52%Break points saved+6%58%

2.1Aces / match+3.25.3

3.5Double faults / match+0.33.2

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final