Win Probability

Thursday, 8 October 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournaments
Closest matchMarcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez50% · 50%Toss-up · Shanghai Masters · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteMirra Andreeva vs Ekaterina Alexandrova84% · 16%Strong favourite · Beijing · QF · Analyze match →
Rated today20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability · updates until the match starts, then frozen
FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardSebastian Baez won 1-6 6-3 6-4Marcos Giron50%Sebastian Baez50%Toss-upH2H 3–0FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardZachary Svajda won 6-3 7-6(2)Fabian Marozsan49%Zachary Svajda51%Toss-upFavourite wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardBotic Van De Zandschulp won 1-6 6-3 6-4Botic Van De Zandschulp49%Daniel Merida Aguilar51%Toss-upUnderdog wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardPablo Carreno Busta won 4-6 7-5 6-3Mariano Navone48%Pablo Carreno Busta52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardJan Lennard Struff won 6-4 6-4Martin Landaluce53%Jan Lennard Struff47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardBu Yunchaokete won 7-6(3) 6-3Luca Van Assche47%Bu Yunchaokete53%Toss-upFavourite wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardPavel Kotov won 6-4 7-6(4)Pavel Kotov44%Tallon Griekspoor56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardJuan Manuel Cerundolo won 6-4 6-4Juan Manuel Cerundolo59%Nicolas Mejia41%Slight edgeFavourite wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardDalibor Svrcina won 6-3 3-6 6-4Cameron Norrie59%Dalibor Svrcina41%Slight edgeUnderdog wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardAdolfo Daniel Vallejo won 6-3 6-1Adolfo Daniel Vallejo60%Valentin Royer40%Slight edgeFavourite wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardThiago Agustin Tirante won 6-4 6-2Thiago Agustin Tirante63%Hamad Medjedovic37%Slight edgeFavourite wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardJenson Brooksby won 7-5 6-4Jaume Munar66%Jenson Brooksby34%Slight edgeUnderdog wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardMatteo Arnaldi won 6-3 6-1Bernard Tomic33%Matteo Arnaldi67%Clear favouriteFavourite wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardCamilo Ugo Carabelli won 2-6 6-2 7-5Camilo Ugo Carabelli29%Ilia Simakin71%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonNo prior meetingsFinalBeijing · QF · HardNikola Bartunkova won 6-3 6-0Karolina Muchova71%Nikola Bartunkova29%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardNuno Borges won 7-6(5) 6-2Nuno Borges72%Facundo Diaz Acosta28%Clear favouriteFavourite wonNo prior meetingsFinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardZizou Bergs won 6-3 6-1Vit Kopriva27%Zizou Bergs73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardHubert Hurkacz won 6-3 7-6(4)Hubert Hurkacz77%James Duckworth23%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardStefanos Tsitsipas won 6-3 7-5Kimmer Coppejans18%Stefanos Tsitsipas82%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalBeijing · QF · HardMirra Andreeva won 7-6(4) 7-6(3)Ekaterina Alexandrova16%Mirra Andreeva84%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.