Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR128HardThu 8 Oct · ~15:00Court 5 · After 2 matches

Juan Manuel CerundoloATP #55 · ARG59%

VSSlight edge · Cerundolo J.

Nicolas MejiaATP #119 · COL41%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Cerundolo J.

59%41%

Cerundolo J. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Cerundolo J.7.1/10

Strong advantage

Mejia N.5.3/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+234 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cerundolo J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1790Supports Cerundolo J.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Mejia N.

This eventReached the R128 here last yearSupports Cerundolo J.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Mejia N.

ELO1 918

Hard ELO1 627

Last 105–5

Age24

Height183 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.7M2026 $1.0M

ELO1 815

Hard ELO1 641

Last 105–5

Age26

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $776K2026 $391K

Juan Manuel Cerundolo faces Nicolas Mejia in the Shanghai Masters round of 128 on hard. Juan Manuel Cerundolo holds the paper edge — ranked #55, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in with 8 days of rest and 69 games in 14d, vs Nicolas Mejia's 2 and 29.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Juan Manuel Cerundolo has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 77 vs 26).
Stage: Juan Manuel Cerundolo defends last year's round of 128.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Cerundolo J. and Mejia N. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Cerundolo J. went 2–1 (67%) against them, Mejia N. 3–0 (100%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 1 better-results split).

2–167%Cerundolo J. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents3–0100%Mejia N. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–2Sets6–3

15–18Games47–37

0–0Tiebreaks1–0

0–0Deciding sets3–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Landaluce M.#73W6-4Roland Garros · clayW4-6 6-4 6-3Montreal · hard
vs Trungelliti M.#90L2-6 1-6Kitzbuhel · clayW7-6(5) 3-6 6-1Montreal · hard
vs Fearnley J.#96W6-2Roland Garros · clayW6-3 3-6 6-2Cincinnati · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Cerundolo J.Mejia N.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–55–5

Season win rate59% (33–23)60% (35–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19181815

Hard-court ELO16271641

Serve vs returnLast 34 vs 31 matches

1st-serve points won70%70%

Return points won37%38%

Aces / match5.75.3

ClutchLast 34 vs 31 matches

Break points saved63%62%

When it starts

Court 5 · After 2 matches · Followed by

1Ugo Carabelli C. v Simakin I.2-3
2Vallejo D. v Royer V.Followed by
3This match: Cerundolo J. v Mejia N.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 5 · ~15:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast24°C · Clear

Wind7 km/h

Humidity40%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Cerundolo J.Mejia N.

8Days since last match2

0Matches · 7 days2

0Games · 7 days29

3Matches · 14 days2

69Games · 14 days29

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia — Shanghai Masters Round of 128", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/cerundolo-vs-mejia-shanghai-masters-r128?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).