Win Probability

Friday, 9 October 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsModel last updated 20:50 UTC
Closest matchArthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert49% · 51%Toss-up · Shanghai Masters · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu91% · 9%Strong favourite · Shanghai Masters · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability · updates until the match starts, then frozen
Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardArthur Gea49%Ugo Humbert51%Toss-upNo prior meetingsBeijing · QF · HardQinwen Zheng49%Elina Svitolina51%Toss-upNo prior meetingsShanghai Masters · R32 · HardQuentin Halys43%Alexander Blockx57%Toss-upNo prior meetingsShanghai Masters · R32 · HardFrancisco Cerundolo58%Roman Safiullin42%Slight edgeH2H 1–1Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardAlexander Bublik61%Tomas Machac39%Slight edgeH2H 2–0Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardKaren Khachanov62%Arthur Fery38%Slight edgeNo prior meetingsShanghai Masters · R32 · HardRei Sakamoto37%Andrey Rublev63%Slight edgeNo prior meetingsShanghai Masters · R32 · HardMatteo Berrettini37%Brandon Nakashima63%Slight edgeH2H 1–0Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardLuciano Darderi34%Stefanos Tsitsipas66%Slight edgeH2H 0–2Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardAlex De Minaur73%Alex Molcan27%Clear favouriteH2H 0–1Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardNovak Djokovic73%Hubert Hurkacz27%Clear favouriteH2H 0–8Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardAdrian Mannarino24%Flavio Cobolli76%Clear favouriteNo prior meetingsShanghai Masters · R32 · HardYannick Hanfmann23%Frances Tiafoe77%Clear favouriteH2H 1–1Beijing · QF · HardElise Mertens23%Iga Swiatek77%Clear favouriteH2H 2–0Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardMiomir Kecmanovic22%Jakub Mensik78%Clear favouriteH2H 2–0Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardMatteo Arnaldi21%Taylor Fritz79%Clear favouriteH2H 1–1Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardArthur Fils83%Pavel Kotov17%Strong favouriteH2H 1–0Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardBen Shelton88%Daniel Altmaier12%Strong favouriteH2H 0–1Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardCamilo Ugo Carabelli11%Felix Auger Aliassime89%Strong favouriteH2H 1–0Shanghai Masters · R32 · HardAlexander Zverev91%Yibing Wu9%Strong favouriteH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.