Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR128HardThu 8 Oct · ~13:30STADIUM COURT · After 1 match

Hubert HurkaczATP #34 · POL77%

VSClear favourite · Hurkacz H.

James DuckworthATP #64 · AUS23%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Hurkacz H.

77%23%

Clear edge for Hurkacz H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Hurkacz H.7.2/10

Strong advantage

Duckworth J.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+134 Hard Elo edgeSupports Hurkacz H.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1798Supports Hurkacz H.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative

This eventReached qualifying here last yearAgainst the prediction · Duckworth J.

ELO2 058

Hard ELO1 900

Last 107–3

Age29

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $20.6M2026 $1.8M

ELO1 856

Hard ELO1 732

Last 106–4

Age34

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $5.7M2026 $779K

Hubert Hurkacz faces James Duckworth in the Shanghai Masters round of 128 on hard. Hubert Hurkacz holds the paper edge — ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Hubert Hurkacz comes in with 2 days of rest and 229 games in 14d, vs James Duckworth's 13 and 20.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Hubert Hurkacz has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 66 vs 22).
Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz leads the head-to-head 2–0, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Halle 2024.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Hurkacz H. and Duckworth J. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Hurkacz H. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Duckworth J. 2–1 (67%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 0 better-results split).

2–250%Hurkacz H. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents2–167%Duckworth J. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

5–4Sets5–4

45–39Games49–45

1–0Tiebreaks0–2

0–1Deciding sets1–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs De Minaur A.#9L4-6 2-3Beijing · hardL2-6 6-7(6)Montreal · hard
vs Griekspoor T.#58W6-3 7-6United Cup · hardW6-4 4-6 7-5 6-4Wimbledon · grass
vs Marozsan F.#63W6-2 6-3Monte Carlo Masters · clayW6-7(4) 6-2 6-4Winston-Salem · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Hurkacz H. leads 2–0

Grass: Hurkacz H. leads 1–0 · Hard: Hurkacz H. leads 1–0

Hurkacz H.June 2024HalleGrass7-6 6-4
Hurkacz H.November 2021Paris MastersHard6-2 6-7 7-5

Evidence

Hurkacz H.Duckworth J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–36–4

Season win rate62% (33–20)51% (25–24)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20581856

Hard-court ELO19001732

Serve vs returnLast 32 vs 31 matches

1st-serve points won79%75%

Return points won34%33%

Aces / match14.78.4

ClutchLast 32 vs 31 matches

Break points saved69%73%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 1 match · Followed by

1Coppejans K. v Tsitsipas S.Starts at 12:00
2This match: Hurkacz H. v Duckworth J.This match
3van Assche L. v Yunchaokete B.Not before 18:00
4Norrie C. v Svrcina D.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · ~13:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast25°C · Clear

Wind3 km/h

Humidity43%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Hurkacz H.Duckworth J.

2Days since last match13

4Matches · 7 days0

101Games · 7 days0

9Matches · 14 days1

229Games · 14 days20

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth — Shanghai Masters Round of 128", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/duckworth-vs-hurkacz-shanghai-masters-r128?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).