Win Probability

Wednesday, 7 October 2026
20 rated matches · 3 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchAlex Molcan vs Federico Cina50% · 50%Toss-up · Shanghai Masters · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteHolger Rune vs Daniel Altmaier86% · 14%Strong favourite · Shanghai Masters · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches203 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardAlex Molcan won 4-6 6-1 6-2Alex Molcan50%Federico Cina50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardYannick Hanfmann won 6-7(4) 7-6(3) 7-6(7)Yannick Hanfmann50%Kamil Majchrzak50%Toss-upH2H 1–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardAdrian Mannarino won 6-3 2-2Adrian Mannarino49%Nikoloz Basilashvili51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardArthur Gea won 6-7(3) 6-1 6-2Arthur Gea52%Jaime Faria48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSamsun Open - Samsun · R32 · HardAnna Blinkova won 4-6 6-2 6-4Elena Pridankina53%Anna Blinkova47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardQuentin Halys won 6-4 7-6(5)Quentin Halys55%Coleman Wong45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardYibing Wu won 6-3 7-6(6)Yibing Wu44%Michael Zheng56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–3FinalSamsun Open - Samsun · R16 · HardPolina Iatcenko won 6-4 7-6(6)Polina Iatcenko56%Dalma Galfi44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardMiomir Kecmanovic won 6-2 6-4Sho Shimabukuro43%Miomir Kecmanovic57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardRoman Safiullin won 7-5 6-3Rinky Hijikata38%Roman Safiullin62%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardRei Sakamoto won 6-3 7-5Marco Trungelliti36%Rei Sakamoto64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardArthur Fery won 7-6(2) 6-1Arthur Fery67%Marin Cilic33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R16 · HardIga Swiatek won 6-1 6-3Iva Jovic29%Iga Swiatek71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R16 · HardElina Svitolina won 6-2 6-3Ann Li29%Elina Svitolina71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardYi Zhou won 6-4 3-6 7-6(4)Mattia Bellucci72%Yi Zhou28%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardTomas Machac won 1-6 7-6(3) 6-2Zhizhen Zhang26%Tomas Machac74%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardMatteo Berrettini won 6-7(3) 6-1 6-4Aleksandar Kovacevic25%Matteo Berrettini75%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R16 · HardQinwen Zheng won 6-1 2-6 6-4Alina Charaeva22%Qinwen Zheng78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalBeijing · R16 · HardElise Mertens won 6-3 6-3Coco Gauff79%Elise Mertens21%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 5–1FinalShanghai Masters · R128 · HardDaniel Altmaier won 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4Holger Rune86%Daniel Altmaier14%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 6 Oct8 of 16 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 9.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days6 Oct 2026W50 Lexington · Q16Jane Dunyon beat Francoise Abanda 3-6 7-5 6-2Pre-match: Jane Dunyon 12%Surprise score88

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.