Win Probability

Tuesday, 6 October 2026
16 rated matches · 7 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchFelix Balshaw vs Joel Schwaerzler50% · 50%Toss-up · Villena · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCarlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka86% · 14%Strong favourite · Tokyo · F · Analyze match →
Rated that day16 matches167 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalVillena · R32 · HardJoel Schwaerzler won 6-7(1) 6-3 7-5Felix Balshaw50%Joel Schwaerzler50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalPalermo · R32 · ClayZdenek Kolar won 6-4 6-4Zdenek Kolar50%Dimitris Sakellaridis50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalPalermo · R32 · ClayYanaki Milev won 6-2 6-3Ivan Gakhov50%Yanaki Milev50%Toss-upH2H 1–1FinalWuning 3 · R32 · HardEvan Zhu won 6-3 6-3Evan Zhu47%Koki Matsuda53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalVillena · R32 · HardJack Pinnington Jones won 6-4 6-2D. Dedura47%Jack Pinnington Jones53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalSuzhou · R32 · HardDarya Astakhova won 6-3Sofia Costoulas46%Darya Astakhova54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWuning 3 · R32 · HardOmar Jasika won 4-6 6-3 7-5Omar Jasika45%Martin Borisiouk55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalPalermo · R32 · ClayBuvaysar Gadamauri won 7-5 7-5Buvaysar Gadamauri45%Pedro Vives Marcos55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · F · HardNovak Djokovic won 7-6(3) 0-1Novak Djokovic55%Alex De Minaur45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalVillena · R32 · HardPedro Martinez won 2-6 7-6(1) 7-5August Holmgren55%Pedro Martinez45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSuzhou · R32 · HardRenata Zarazua won 6-3 6-3Han Shi56%Renata Zarazua44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R16 · HardKarolina Muchova won 7-5 1-6 7-6(7)Karolina Muchova58%Naomi Osaka42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 5–3FinalBeijing · R16 · HardNikola Bartunkova won 6-0 4-6 6-3Sinja Kraus33%Nikola Bartunkova67%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalBeijing · R16 · HardMirra Andreeva won 6-2 6-2Daria Snigur20%Mirra Andreeva80%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R16 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 6-2 6-2Linda Noskova80%Ekaterina Alexandrova20%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalTokyo · F · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 7-6(4) 6-4Carlos Alcaraz86%Jiri Lehecka14%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 5 Oct10 of 14 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 9.4 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days5 Oct 2026Shanghai Masters · Q64Rigele Te beat Adam Walton 5-7 6-3 6-4Pre-match: Rigele Te 16%Surprise score84

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.