Win Probability

Monday, 5 October 2026
14 rated matches · 6 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchThiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moller50% · 50%Toss-up · Braga · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCarlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar93% · 7%Strong favourite · Tokyo · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day14 matches146 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalBraga · R32 · ClayElmer Moller won 7-6(0) 5-7 6-4Thiago Monteiro50%Elmer Moller50%Toss-upH2H 2–0FinalSuzhou · R32 · HardRebecca Sramkova won 6-2 6-3Alevtina Ibragimova51%Rebecca Sramkova49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalSamsun Open - Samsun · R32 · HardDalma Galfi won 6-3 6-4Dalma Galfi53%Julia Grabher47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalBeijing · SF · HardAlex De Minaur won 6-4 3-2Alex De Minaur57%Hubert Hurkacz43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalBeijing · SF · HardNovak Djokovic won 7-5 5-3Novak Djokovic59%Daniil Medvedev41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 11–5FinalTokyo · SF · HardJiri Lehecka won 6-4 6-2Jiri Lehecka61%Valentin Vacherot39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R32 · HardElise Mertens won 6-2 3-6 6-3Jelena Ostapenko35%Elise Mertens65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R32 · HardQinwen Zheng won 7-6(3) 4-6 7-5Marie Bouzkova32%Qinwen Zheng68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R32 · HardAlina Charaeva won 6-4 6-1Alina Charaeva28%Sonay Kartal72%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R32 · HardAnn Li won 6-4 6-3Belinda Bencic73%Ann Li27%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalBeijing · R32 · HardElina Svitolina won 6-4 7-5Maria Sakkari27%Elina Svitolina73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–4FinalBeijing · R32 · HardIva Jovic won 6-1 7-5Iva Jovic75%Kamilla Rakhimova25%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalBeijing · R32 · HardIga Swiatek won 4-6 7-6(0) 6-2Donna Vekic14%Iga Swiatek86%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 5–0FinalTokyo · SF · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 5-7 6-3 6-1Carlos Alcaraz93%Jaume Munar7%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 4 Oct13 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days3 Oct 2026Beijing · R64Alina Charaeva beat Elena Rybakina 3-6 6-4 6-3Pre-match: Alina Charaeva 6%Surprise score94

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.