Win Probability

Sunday, 4 October 2026
20 rated matches · 7 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchSinja Kraus vs Dayana Yastremska52% · 48%Toss-up · Beijing · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCarlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov93% · 7%Strong favourite · Tokyo · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches207 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalBeijing · R32 · HardSinja Kraus won 6-1 6-4Sinja Kraus52%Dayana Yastremska48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBari · F · ClaySamuele Pieri won 6-4 6-1Juan Cruz Martin Manzano52%Samuele Pieri48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalBeijing · R32 · HardDaria Snigur won 6-1 6-0Daria Snigur55%Taylah Preston45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · QF · HardHubert Hurkacz won 7-6(2) 6-2Hubert Hurkacz56%Karen Khachanov44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalAdana Open - Adana · F · HardLeolia Jeanjean won 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4Leolia Jeanjean44%Lois Boisson56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalColumbus · F · HardDylan Dietrich won 6-3 6-2Dylan Dietrich43%Abedallah Shelbayh57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalTokyo · QF · HardJaume Munar won 6-4 6-2Jaume Munar61%Kyrian Jacquet39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · QF · HardAlex De Minaur won 1-6 6-2 6-3Alex De Minaur61%Andrey Rublev39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 4–5FinalJingshan · F · HardLloyd Harris won 1-6 6-3 7-6(4)Mattia Bellucci35%Lloyd Harris65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · QF · HardDaniil Medvedev won 7-6(4) 6-3Daniil Medvedev66%Francisco Cerundolo34%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R32 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 3-6 6-4 6-3Ekaterina Alexandrova32%Diana Shnaider68%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 3–1FinalTokyo · QF · HardValentin Vacherot won 7-5 4-6 6-4Valentin Vacherot30%Arthur Fils70%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · QF · HardNovak Djokovic won 4-6 6-4 6-4Alexander Zverev70%Novak Djokovic30%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 10–5FinalBeijing · R32 · HardNaomi Osaka won 7-6(4) 6-4Sara Bejlek24%Naomi Osaka76%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalTokyo · QF · HardJiri Lehecka won 6-1 6-1Jiri Lehecka78%Adolfo Daniel Vallejo22%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R32 · HardKarolina Muchova won 4-6 6-4 6-2Karolina Muchova79%Liudmila Samsonova21%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalBeijing · R32 · HardMirra Andreeva won 6-4 6-1Polina Kudermetova16%Mirra Andreeva84%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalBeijing · R32 · HardNikola Bartunkova won 6-4 6-3Nikola Bartunkova14%Aryna Sabalenka86%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R32 · HardLinda Noskova won 6-2 6-1Linda Noskova86%Viktorija Golubic14%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalTokyo · QF · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 7-6(3) 2-1Carlos Alcaraz93%Denis Shapovalov7%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 3 Oct14 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 14.0 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days3 Oct 2026Beijing · R64Alina Charaeva beat Elena Rybakina 3-6 6-4 6-3Pre-match: Alina Charaeva 6%Surprise score94

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.