Win Probability

Saturday, 3 October 2026
20 rated matches · 3 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchAshlyn Krueger vs Ann Li51% · 49%Toss-up · Beijing · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCarlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi96% · 4%Strong favourite · Tokyo · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches203 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalBeijing · R64 · HardAnn Li won 6-4 6-2Ashlyn Krueger51%Ann Li49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalTokyo · R16 · HardDenis Shapovalov won 7-5 3-6 6-4Denis Shapovalov48%Alejandro Tabilo52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardDonna Vekic won 6-1 4-6 6-2Donna Vekic61%Lin Zhu39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–4FinalBeijing · R16 · HardAndrey Rublev won 6-2 3-6 6-4Andrey Rublev61%Roman Safiullin39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardElise Mertens won 6-0 4-6 7-5Katie Volynets38%Elise Mertens62%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalBeijing · R16 · HardFrancisco Cerundolo won 6-3 6-3Francisco Cerundolo38%Jakub Mensik62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–3FinalBeijing · R64 · HardMaria Sakkari won 6-2 6-2Maria Sakkari63%Storm Hunter37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardMarie Bouzkova won 6-4 6-4Marie Bouzkova63%Kimberly Birrell37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardKamilla Rakhimova won 6-2 4-6 6-3Kamilla Rakhimova36%Leylah Fernandez64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardJelena Ostapenko won 7-6(5) 7-5Jelena Ostapenko35%Paula Badosa65%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 4–2FinalBeijing · R64 · HardSonay Kartal won 6-3 6-2Sonay Kartal66%Xin Yu Wang34%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardQinwen Zheng won 6-7(4) 6-4 3-0Qinwen Zheng67%Anna Kalinskaya33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalTokyo · R16 · HardJiri Lehecka won 5-7 6-4 6-4Ugo Humbert32%Jiri Lehecka68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R16 · HardAlex De Minaur won 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5Alex De Minaur69%Quentin Halys31%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalBeijing · R64 · HardElina Svitolina won 1-6 6-4 6-2Katerina Siniakova24%Elina Svitolina76%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 6–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardBelinda Bencic won 6-1 7-6(3)Belinda Bencic80%Anastasia Zakharova20%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardCoco Gauff won 7-6(4) 4-6 6-2Coco Gauff89%Maria Camila Osorio Serrano11%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardIga Swiatek won 6-2 6-3Xinyu Gao8%Iga Swiatek92%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardAlina Charaeva won 3-6 6-4 6-3Elena Rybakina94%Alina Charaeva6%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalTokyo · R16 · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 7-6(6) 6-1Carlos Alcaraz96%Matteo Arnaldi4%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 2 Oct11 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.5 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days2 Oct 2026M25 Slobozia · QFBorys Zgola beat Radu Mihai Papoe 6-3 7-5Pre-match: Borys Zgola 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.