UMPIRY

Win Probability

Friday, 2 October 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchTaylah Preston vs Diane Parry45% · 55%Toss-up · Beijing · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Renata Zarazua96% · 4%Strong favourite · Beijing · R64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalBeijing · R64 · HardTaylah Preston won 7-6(4) 6-1Taylah Preston45%Diane Parry55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardPolina Kudermetova won 6-4 4-6 6-4Clara Tauson55%Polina Kudermetova45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalTokyo · R16 · HardValentin Vacherot won 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4Valentin Vacherot44%Stefanos Tsitsipas56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalTokyo · R16 · HardJaume Munar won 6-1 6-1Jaume Munar43%Jaime Faria57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalBeijing · R64 · HardDaria Snigur won 3-6 7-6(5) 6-2Jasmine Paolini57%Daria Snigur43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalTokyo · R16 · HardArthur Fils won 6-3 7-5Arthur Fils59%Frances Tiafoe41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardNikola Bartunkova won 6-2 6-2Nikola Bartunkova60%Magdalena Frech40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardViktorija Golubic won 6-4 3-6 6-3Viktorija Golubic39%Peyton Stearns61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalTokyo · R16 · HardKyrian Jacquet won 6-3 7-6(5)Kyrian Jacquet39%Luciano Darderi61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 6-1 6-4Ekaterina Alexandrova64%Aliaksandra Sasnovich36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–6FinalBeijing · R64 · HardSara Bejlek won 6-3 7-5Sara Bejlek65%Maddison Inglis35%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 6-2 3-6 6-3Linda Fruhvirtova34%Liudmila Samsonova66%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardDayana Yastremska won 6-3 6-1Dayana Yastremska32%Maja Chwalinska68%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-0 6-4Janice Tjen29%Diana Shnaider71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardSinja Kraus won 4-1Anastasia Potapova73%Sinja Kraus27%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalBeijing · R64 · HardNaomi Osaka won 6-3 3-6 6-3Maria Timofeeva23%Naomi Osaka77%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardLinda Noskova won 6-4 6-1Linda Noskova80%Elena Gabriela Ruse20%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R64 · HardKarolina Muchova won 7-6(3) 6-1Karolina Muchova83%Katie Boulter17%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardMirra Andreeva won 3-6 6-0 6-0Yue Yuan10%Mirra Andreeva90%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R64 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-1 6-3Renata Zarazua4%Aryna Sabalenka96%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 1 Oct12 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days1 Oct 2026M15 Ann Arbor · R16Hugo Coquelin beat Micah Braswell 6-4 6-0Pre-match: Hugo Coquelin 13%Surprise score87

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.