Pavel Kotov vs Tallon Griekspoor | Shanghai Masters Round of 128

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR128HardThu 8 Oct · 12:00COURT 7 · Next on

Pavel KotovATP #187 · RUS44%

VSToss-up

Tallon GriekspoorATP #58 · NED56%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

44%56%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Kotov P.6.1/10

Even match

Griekspoor T.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+176 Hard Elo edgeSupports Griekspoor T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1789Supports Griekspoor T.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kotov P.

Head-to-headLeads 2–1 on hardSupports Griekspoor T.

This eventReached the last 16 here last yearSupports Griekspoor T.

ELO1 803

Hard ELO1 723

Last 107–3

Age27

Height191 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.3M2026 $59K

ELO1 894

Hard ELO1 812

Last 103–7

Age30

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $8.3M2026 $1.2M

Pavel Kotov faces Tallon Griekspoor in the Shanghai Masters round of 128 on hard. Tallon Griekspoor is the paper favourite — ranked #58, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage — but Pavel Kotov has won 3 of their 5 previous meetings. Pavel Kotov brings the better recent hard form (7 of 9).

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Pavel Kotov 74 games in 14 days, Tallon Griekspoor 58.
Last match: Pavel Kotov dropped just 6 games past Aleksandar Vukic.
Head-to-head: Pavel Kotov leads the head-to-head 3–2, 1–2 on hard. Last met at Stockholm 2024.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Kotov P. leads 3–2

Hard: Griekspoor T. leads 2–1 · Clay: Kotov P. leads 2–0

Griekspoor T.October 2024StockholmHard6-4 6-3
Kotov P.October 2023StockholmHard7-6 6-2
Griekspoor T.January 2023Australian OpenHard6-3 7-6 6-3
Kotov P.April 2022MarrakechClay0-6 6-2 6-2
Kotov P.April 2019Francavilla Al Mare CHClay6-7 6-4 6-4

Evidence

Kotov P.Griekspoor T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–33–7

Season win rate70% (31–13)36% (14–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18031894

Hard-court ELO17231812

Serve vs returnLast 24 matches each

1st-serve points won78%73%

Return points won37%31%

Aces / match6.68.8

ClutchLast 24 matches each

Break points saved65%63%

When it starts

COURT 7 · Next on · Starts at 12:00

1This match: Kotov P. v Griekspoor T.This match
2Tomic B. v Arnaldi M.Followed by
3Giron M. v Baez S.Followed by
4Van De Zandschulp B. v Merida Aguilar D.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 7 · 12:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast24°C · Clear

Wind1 km/h

Humidity43%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Kotov P.Griekspoor T.

1Days since last match6

2Matches · 7 days1

53Games · 7 days35

3Matches · 14 days2

74Games · 14 days58

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Pavel Kotov vs Tallon Griekspoor — Shanghai Masters Round of 128", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/griekspoor-vs-kotov-shanghai-masters-r128?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).