Win Probability

Monday, 21 September 2026
17 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchStorm Hunter vs Joanna Garland50% · 50%Toss-up · Singapore · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteLeylah Fernandez vs Kyoka Okamura82% · 18%Strong favourite · Singapore · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day17 matches178 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalSingapore · R32 · HardJoanna Garland won 6-3 5-7 6-1Storm Hunter50%Joanna Garland50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalGenoa 2 · R32 · ClayDali Blanch won 6-3 6-3Dali Blanch50%Sandro Kopp50%Toss-upH2H 2–1FinalEupago Porto Open - Porto · R32 · HardOceane Dodin won 1-6 6-3 6-4Susan Bandecchi50%Oceane Dodin50%Toss-upH2H 1–2FinalGenoa 2 · R32 · ClayFederico Arnaboldi won 6-1 7-6(3)Federico Arnaboldi51%Florian Broska49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalKorea Open - Seoul · R32 · HardKamilla Rakhimova won 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5Kamilla Rakhimova48%Polina Kudermetova52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalGenoa 2 · R32 · ClayJuan Cruz Martin Manzano won 6-4 6-2Juan Cruz Martin Manzano52%Samuele Pieri48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalTiburon · F · HardDarwin Blanch won 3-6 6-4 6-2Darwin Blanch47%Michael Mmoh53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalAnkara Open - Ankara · R32 · HardAyla Aksu won 6-1 7-6(3)Yuki Naito53%Ayla Aksu47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalGenoa 2 · R32 · ClayRaul Brancaccio won 7-6(4) 6-2Raul Brancaccio46%Filippo Romano54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalSt. Tropez · R32 · HardAndrea Guerrieri won 6-3 6-7(4) 6-3Andrea Guerrieri44%Francesco Maestrelli56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalKorea Open - Seoul · R32 · HardAlina Korneeva won 6-4 6-2Alina Korneeva58%Mananchaya Sawangkaew42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalSao Paulo · F · HardKaitlin Quevedo won 4-6 6-4 6-2Kaitlin Quevedo58%N. Podoroska42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalKorea Open - Seoul · R32 · HardDayeon Back won 6-3 4-6 6-1Yue Yuan35%Dayeon Back65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalSingapore · R32 · HardMaja Chwalinska won 6-4 6-2Rebecca Sramkova33%Maja Chwalinska67%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalSingapore · R32 · HardAliaksandra Sasnovich won 7-5 6-0Daria Kasatkina69%Aliaksandra Sasnovich31%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 5–5FinalSingapore · R32 · HardTalia Gibson won 6-3 6-3Talia Gibson72%Fiona Ferro28%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalSingapore · R32 · HardLeylah Fernandez won 6-2 6-3Kyoka Okamura18%Leylah Fernandez82%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,466—67%
Challenger Men3,111—63%
Challenger Women804—65%
ITF Men4,368—66%
ITF Women4,052—66%
Yesterday · 20 Sep3 of 8 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 4.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days20 Sep 2026St. Tropez · Q32Daniel Jade beat Ryan Peniston 6-7(5) 6-2 6-2Pre-match: Daniel Jade 18%Surprise score82

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.