Win Probability

Sunday, 20 September 2026
8 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Thiago Monteiro50% · 50%Toss-up · Szczecin · F · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteIva Jovic vs Peyton Stearns71% · 29%Clear favourite · Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · F · Analyze match →
Rated that day8 matches88 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,466—67%
Challenger Men3,111—63%
Challenger Women804—65%
ITF Men4,368—66%
ITF Women4,052—66%
Yesterday · 19 Sep10 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days18 Sep 2026Phan Thiet 4 · QFHunter Heck beat Matthew Dellavedova 6-4 6-2Pre-match: Hunter Heck 15%Surprise score85

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.