Win Probability

Saturday, 19 September 2026
20 rated matches · 13 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchAlicia Herrero Linana vs Yasmine Kabbaj50% · 50%Toss-up · BBVA Open Internacional - Valencia · SF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteIva Jovic vs Cristina Bucsa80% · 20%Strong favourite · Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2013 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalBBVA Open Internacional - Valencia · SF · ClayAlicia Herrero Linana won 6-0 6-3Alicia Herrero Linana50%Yasmine Kabbaj50%Toss-upH2H 2–0FinalPhan Thiet 4 · SF · HardRodrigo Pacheco Mendez won 2-6 6-3 6-4Moise Kouame49%Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalZavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · SF · ClayMona Barthel won 6-4 6-0Mona Barthel49%Noemi Basiletti51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalM15 Melilla · SF · ClayPietro Marino won 7-6(3) 6-4Pietro Marino52%Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalSzczecin · SF · ClayThiago Monteiro won 6-4 3-6 6-3Thiago Monteiro52%Marco Trungelliti48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–2FinalDavis Cup · RB5 · HardJiri Lehecka won 6-3 7-5Jiri Lehecka52%Learner Tien48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalGuangzhou · SF · HardMarat Sharipov won 7-5 6-3Marat Sharipov47%Petr Bar Biryukov53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–0FinalSzczecin · SF · ClayNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo won 6-3 6-4Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo47%Luka Mikrut53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalDavis Cup · RB1 · ClayDaniel Merida Aguilar won 5-7 6-3 6-3Alejandro Tabilo47%Daniel Merida Aguilar53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · SF · HardPeyton Stearns won 7-6(7) 6-2Liudmila Samsonova54%Peyton Stearns46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalLadies Open - Caldas da Rainha · SF · HardGabriela Andrea Knutson won 7-5 5-7 6-3Mia Pohankova56%Gabriela Andrea Knutson44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalDavis Cup · RB4 · HardJakub Mensik won 5-7 6-4 6-3Jakub Mensik43%Ben Shelton57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalBiella · SF · ClayCarlo Alberto Caniato won 6-3 6-2Carlo Alberto Caniato60%Alex Barrena40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalW15 Monastir · SF · HardYekaterina Dmitrichenko won 6-3 6-1Lavinia Luciano61%Yekaterina Dmitrichenko39%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalM25 Sintra · SF · HardFausto Tabacco won 7-6(6) 6-1Giorgio Tabacco62%Fausto Tabacco38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–4FinalSao Paulo · SF · HardKaitlin Quevedo won 6-4 2-6 6-4Kaitlin Quevedo62%Anna Blinkova38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalSao Paulo · SF · HardN. Podoroska won 6-3 6-4N. Podoroska25%Paula Badosa75%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalDavis Cup · RB2 · HardFelix Auger Aliassime won 7-6(5) 4-6 6-3Felix Auger Aliassime76%Quentin Halys24%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–0FinalDavis Cup · RB4 · HardFelix Auger Aliassime won 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4Felix Auger Aliassime77%Arthur Rinderknech23%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–3FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · SF · HardIva Jovic won 6-4 6-1Cristina Bucsa20%Iva Jovic80%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,466—67%
Challenger Men3,111—63%
Challenger Women804—65%
ITF Men4,368—66%
ITF Women4,052—66%
Yesterday · 18 Sep8 of 19 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.0 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days18 Sep 2026Phan Thiet 4 · QFHunter Heck beat Matthew Dellavedova 6-4 6-2Pre-match: Hunter Heck 15%Surprise score85

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.