Win Probability

Friday, 18 September 2026
19 rated matches · 11 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchEri Shimizu vs Jia Jing Lu51% · 49%Toss-up · W35 Kyoto · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteMarta Kostyuk vs Liudmila Samsonova82% · 18%Strong favourite · Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day19 matches1911 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalW35 Kyoto · QF · HardJia Jing Lu won 6-1 6-2Eri Shimizu51%Jia Jing Lu49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalSzczecin · QF · ClayMarco Trungelliti won 7-6(6) 7-5Marco Cecchinato51%Marco Trungelliti49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–3FinalDavis Cup · RB1 · HardLearner Tien won 6-2 6-4Jakub Mensik49%Learner Tien51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalSzczecin · QF · ClayThiago Monteiro won 6-4 6-2D. Dedura48%Thiago Monteiro52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalLadies Open - Caldas da Rainha · QF · HardLisa Pigato won 6-4 1-6 6-4Susan Bandecchi52%Lisa Pigato48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalPhan Thiet 4 · QF · HardMoise Kouame won 6-4 6-2Moise Kouame46%Florent Bax54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW35 Hurghada · QF · HardZuzanna Pawlikowska won 6-2 6-2Zuzanna Pawlikowska46%Ann Akasha Ceuca54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalLadies Open - Caldas da Rainha · QF · HardGabriela Andrea Knutson won 6-2 1-6 6-4Malaika Rapolu55%Gabriela Andrea Knutson45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalBBVA Open Internacional - Valencia · QF · ClayYasmine Kabbaj won 6-1 7-5Yasmine Kabbaj55%Despina Papamichail45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalDavis Cup · RB2 · HardJiri Lehecka won 6-4 6-4Jiri Lehecka44%Ben Shelton56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–1FinalZavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · QF · ClaySamira De Stefano won 4-6 7-6(2) 6-4Samira De Stefano42%Alice Tubello58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBiella · QF · ClayAlex Barrena won 6-3 6-4Alex Barrena42%Juan Cruz Martin Manzano58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalDavis Cup · RB2 · HardHyeon Chung won 2-6 6-4 7-5Hyeon Chung59%Sumit Nagal41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSao Paulo · QF · HardAnna Blinkova won 6-4 7-5Anna Blinkova60%Alina Charaeva40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalSao Paulo · QF · HardKaitlin Quevedo won 6-3 6-4Teodora Kostovic39%Kaitlin Quevedo61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalBBVA Open Internacional - Valencia · QF · ClayAlicia Herrero Linana won 6-2 6-1Irene Burillo Escorihuela38%Alicia Herrero Linana62%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · QF · HardPeyton Stearns won 7-6(6) 6-4Peyton Stearns65%Sloane Stephens35%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalZavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · QF · ClayLaura Samson won 6-4 6-1Anastasiya Soboleva65%Laura Samson35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · QF · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 4-6 6-2 7-5Marta Kostyuk82%Liudmila Samsonova18%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–5
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,466—67%
Challenger Men3,111—63%
Challenger Women804—65%
ITF Men4,368—66%
ITF Women4,052—66%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.