Win Probability

Thursday, 17 September 2026
10 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchSuzan Lamens vs Solana Sierra46% · 54%Toss-up · Sao Paulo · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteMarta Kostyuk vs Taylor Townsend77% · 23%Clear favourite · Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day10 matches104 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,466—67%
Challenger Men3,111—63%
Challenger Women804—65%
ITF Men4,368—66%
ITF Women4,052—66%
Yesterday · 16 Sep5 of 14 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 7.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days16 Sep 2026W35 Hurghada · R32Olga Danilova beat Carolyn Ansari 4-6 2-0Pre-match: Olga Danilova 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.