Win Probability

Wednesday, 16 September 2026
14 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchKenta Miyoshi vs Philip Sekulic50% · 50%Toss-up · Phan Thiet 4 · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteIva Jovic vs Zeynep Sonmez70% · 30%Clear favourite · Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day14 matches148 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalPhan Thiet 4 · R16 · HardPhilip Sekulic won 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-3Kenta Miyoshi50%Philip Sekulic50%Toss-upH2H 1–1FinalRennes · R32 · HardDaniel Rincon won 5-7 4-2Hamish Stewart51%Daniel Rincon49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalSao Paulo · R16 · HardTeodora Kostovic won 6-4 6-1Darja Semenistaja49%Teodora Kostovic51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLadies Open - Caldas da Rainha · R16 · HardSusan Bandecchi won 6-3 6-2Susan Bandecchi48%Viktoria Hruncakova52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 4–2FinalSao Paulo · R32 · HardDominika Salkova won 7-5 6-1Jessica Bouzas Maneiro53%Dominika Salkova47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalZavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · R16 · ClayLaura Samson won 6-7(6) 6-0 6-3Weronika Falkowska54%Laura Samson46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBiella · R16 · ClayJay Clarke won 6-1 7-5Jay Clarke45%Petr Brunclik55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalSao Paulo · R32 · HardAnna Blinkova won 6-1 6-3Anna Blinkova45%Carol Young Suh Lee55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalSzczecin · R16 · ClayLuka Mikrut won 6-3 2-2Laslo Djere55%Luka Mikrut45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · HardPeyton Stearns won 6-2 7-5Diane Parry44%Peyton Stearns56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBiella · R16 · ClayOriol Roca Batalla won 2-6 6-3 6-4Oriol Roca Batalla58%Stefano Napolitano42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · HardMagdalena Frech won 6-4 6-3Magdalena Frech63%Caroline Dolehide37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · HardSloane Stephens won 7-6(4) 7-6(3)Sloane Stephens35%Janice Tjen65%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · HardIva Jovic won 7-6(5) 6-4Zeynep Sonmez30%Iva Jovic70%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,466—67%
Challenger Men3,111—63%
Challenger Women804—65%
ITF Men4,368—66%
ITF Women4,052—66%
Yesterday · 15 Sep9 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 10.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days15 Sep 2026Phan Thiet 4 · R32Hunter Heck beat Khumoun Sultanov 6-3 6-2Pre-match: Hunter Heck 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.