Win Probability

Tuesday, 15 September 2026
20 rated matches · 10 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchArthur Weber vs Koki Matsuda50% · 50%Toss-up · Phan Thiet 4 · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteLiudmila Samsonova vs Elsa Jacquemot68% · 32%Clear favourite · Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2010 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalPhan Thiet 4 · R32 · HardArthur Weber won 6-1 6-2Arthur Weber50%Koki Matsuda50%Toss-upH2H 3–0FinalPhan Thiet 4 · R32 · HardPhilip Sekulic won 6-2 2-6 7-5Yuta Shimizu52%Philip Sekulic48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalSzczecin · R32 · ClayVitaliy Sachko won 6-3 6-1Vitaliy Sachko48%Filip Cristian Jianu52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBiella · R32 · ClayAlex Barrena won 6-4 1-6 6-3Alex Barrena48%Maxime Chazal52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalSzczecin · R32 · ClayMarco Trungelliti won 7-6(4) 6-2Sean Cuenin52%Marco Trungelliti48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalRennes · R32 · HardHarold Mayot won 7-6(5) 1-6 6-4Clement Tabur48%Harold Mayot52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalLadies Open - Caldas da Rainha · R32 · HardFrancisca Jorge won 6-3 6-3Francisca Jorge48%Xinyu Gao52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalTiburon · R32 · HardFederico Agustin Gomez won 4-6 7-6(2) 6-2Federico Agustin Gomez48%Daniel Milavsky52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBBVA Open Internacional - Valencia · R32 · ClayJennifer Ruggeri won 5-7 7-6(9) 6-1Jennifer Ruggeri53%Eva Vedder47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSzczecin · R32 · ClayD. Dedura won 5-1Dusan Lajovic47%D. Dedura53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalPhan Thiet 4 · R32 · HardMartin Borisiouk won 5-7 6-2 7-5Dominik Palan46%Martin Borisiouk54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalPhan Thiet 4 · R32 · HardCruz Hewitt won 7-5 6-4Cruz Hewitt46%Digvijaypratap Singh54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalGuangzhou · R32 · HardJake Delaney won 4-6 6-3 6-4Jake Delaney45%Hikaru Shiraishi55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalBBVA Open Internacional - Valencia · R32 · ClayNastasja Schunk won 7-5 6-4Oksana Selekhmeteva45%Nastasja Schunk55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalSao Paulo · R32 · HardElina Avanesyan won 6-2 6-4Julia Riera45%Elina Avanesyan55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalGuangzhou · R32 · HardLuca Castelnuovo won 6-7(6) 6-2 1-0Luca Castelnuovo56%Omar Jasika44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalBiella · R32 · ClaySamuele Pieri won 5-7 6-2 7-5Gabriele Piraino56%Samuele Pieri44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · HardCristina Bucsa won 6-4 6-4Cristina Bucsa58%Panna Udvardy42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R16 · HardSara Bejlek won 6-4 6-3Alycia Parks39%Sara Bejlek61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R32 · HardLiudmila Samsonova won 7-6(6) 6-2Elsa Jacquemot32%Liudmila Samsonova68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,480—67%
Challenger Men3,176—64%
Challenger Women822—65%
ITF Men4,395—67%
ITF Women4,082—66%
Yesterday · 14 Sep3 of 5 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 3.0 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days13 Sep 2026Szczecin · Q32Matyas Cerny beat Filip Misolic 4-6 7-5 6-4Pre-match: Matyas Cerny 17%Surprise score83

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.